With Spring Training in the books and Opening pitch mere hours away, the Minnesota Twins are set to make their 2013 debut to considerably less fanfare than in seasons past. After two consecutive 90+ loss seasons, Twins management and fans are all but gearing up for another sub-par year. The 'R' word is being thrown around frequently, and yes, I can confirm it - the Twins are rebuilding. 2013 is a critical year towards the future success of the Twins as they face more than a few roster decisions in the coming months. Uncertainty is in the air and nobody knows what to expect from this Twins team. Did GM Terry Ryan do enough to adequately address team needs? Will manager Ron Gardenhire get the boot? More importantly, where does the organization go from here? I'll be making a stab at these predictions and more. Sit back, grab a Summit (or three) and allow me to prognosticate. Grading the offseason
OVERALL GRADE: D+ The Twins were desperate to add starting pitching this past offseason and they set out to do just that. Their biggest acquisition was RHP Vance Worley, acquired from the Philadelphia Phillies for starting outfielder Ben Revere. Worley's career numbers are as follows: 46 GS, 18-13, 1.35 WHIP, 3.50 ERA. Those numbers might not exactly jump out at you, but guess what? Worley is the Twins number one starter and de-facto 'Ace' to start the season. GM Terry Ryan is banking an awful lot on a rebound year from Worley, who had a solid rookie season in 2011 but was inconsistent last year while battling bone chips in his elbow. Trading away two starting outfielders in Revere and Span will prove troublesome for Minnesota. Both players effectively mirror one another - each hits for contact, has good-to-great speed, and is an excellent fielder. On top of that, Revere and Span were signed to modest contracts and didn't figure to burden the Twins financially. The impact of these trades will be lessened if new CF Aaron Hicks and other top prospects (Buxton, Arcia, etc.) eventually pan out. SP's Correia and Pelfrey are both back of the rotation guys, and I would be surprised if either managed to win double digit games. Alex Meyer and Trevor May, acquired in separate deals, can throw with heat and are likely starters for 2014 and beyond. The departures of Francisco Liriano and Scott Baker may sting in the short-term, but I certainly don't blame Minnesota for not re-signing either given their cost and injury history. The production of Pavano and Capps can be replaced at a much more affordable price, in any case. Overall, I am underwhelmed by the offseason put together by Terry Ryan and company. Although the Twins are clearly re-stocking their farm, the starting rotation has only been improved marginally, in my opinion. I wouldn't expect these acquisitions to make an immediate impact as the Twins continue to build from within their own ranks. Ron with the wind?![]() Your move, Terry. Ron Gardenhire, a man beloved by some fans and detested by others, is entering his 12th year as Manager of the Twins. Since being named AL Manager of the Year in 2010, Gardenhire's teams have amassed a 129-195 record - falling far short of almost every expectation set. Though Gardy is undoubtedly a strong baseball mind, team executives will be looking for a scapegoat should the Twins finish near the bottom of the AL for a third consecutive season. Revenue is always the bottom line in professional sports and with attendance declining, the Twins have very few options when it comes to their Manager. GM Terry Ryan has elected to not renew Gardenhire's contract, opting instead for the 'wait and see' approach in 2013. Nothing has been mentioned publicly, but the bar needs to be set at a certain level. Simply put, what would be enough for Gardenhire to save his job? Surely no fan can legitimately expect a playoff berth, but how about a .500 record? Finishing at .500 would represent a 15 game improvement from last year's record and would give Twins fans at least a small glimmer of hope. Conversely, that might not be enough to appease the fan base. Detractors will point out that the Twins have not won a playoff game under Gardenhire since 2004, which is a valid point. Coaches and managers are never 100% to blame for the failures of their team, but they often fall on the sword, so to speak. Given his track record, Gardy deserves to finish out 2013 as Manager - barring anything short of a complete collapse. Fair or not, I can't see Ron Gardenhire returning as Manager should the Twins finish below .500 in 2013. 81 wins and 81 losses - that is the barometer which I have set. Only time will tell if GM Terry Ryan feels the same way. (NOT So) Great expectationsMy oh my how things have changed since 2010. No longer are the Twins considered a power in the AL - or even a threat to win the division for that matter. A once robust payroll has shrunk from $110 million to $80 million at the present. As is often the case with rebuilding, progress and results won't come instantly. The 2013 season is setting itself up to be another frustrating year for Twins fans. For once, I'm not concerned with our hitting - Mauer, Morneau, and Willingham should once again be the primary contributors on offense. Plouffe and Doumit will look to continue their solid play from a year ago. Dozier and Hicks are out there to prove their worth and, hopefully, surprise a few people. Starting pitching is another story. Even with a rosy outlook, I can't help but think that Minnesota has a bottom five rotation in all of MLB. The Twins are depending on the likes of Vance Worley and Scott Diamond (who starts the season on the DL) to be the number one and two starters. With Correia, Pelfrey, DeVries, and others filling out the rest of the rotation, the depth is less than ideal. Prized prospect Kyle Gibson appears to be healthy and will be receiving a call-up at some point in 2013. Even then, it's important to temper expectations for a pitcher coming off Tommy John's surgery. Other top prospects such as Alex Meyer and Trevor May figure to spend the majority of the year in the minors. Minnesota's farm system once again looks strong, with position players like Miguel Sano, Byron Buxton, Oswaldo Arcia, Eddie Rosario, and the aforementioned Aaron Hicks representing the future of the organization. With the number four overall pick in the upcoming draft, management will have the chance to add another talented young player into the fold. Unfortunately for Twins fan, the future is not now. A few of the top prospects will get called up, but most figure to be in the plans for 2014 and beyond. In the wake of two awful seasons, patience is not an easy message to preach to the Twins faithful. There will be changes made and lineups shuffled to be sure. Ultimately, I would not be at all surprised to see either Morneau or Willingham traded to a contending team for prospects. I would also not be shocked to see Ron Gardenhire let go as Manager. There will be the occasional glimmer of hope, but Twins fans should mostly be looking ahead to 2014, when the roster will (potentially) be a lot more complete from top to bottom. I'm predicting a final record of 75-87. Baby steps, Twins faithful, baby steps... THANKS for reading this blog! Stay tuned in the coming weeks as I preview the 2013 NFL Draft and the upcoming NHL and NBA playoffs. As always, I appreciate your feedback!
- Ted
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AuthorHey, I'm Ted Sorensen and this is my sports & personal blog. Leave some comments and let me know what you think! Archives
June 2016
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