Happy 2013 everybody! Personally, I have high hopes for the year ahead and I hope that all of you readers have big plans as well. Today, I will be bringing you my preview for the once improbable playoff reunion of the Minnesota Vikings and the Green Bay Packers. As you may recall from my last blog, I (correctly) predicted that the Vikings would need a 10-6 record to make the playoffs. Against all odds, they have managed to do exactly that - winning all four of their games in December - including wins at Houston and against Green Bay, who had won nine of their last ten games going into last Sunday. Although a road victory in the frozen tundra of Lambeau Field is no small order, the Vikings are going into this game with a LOT of momentum on their side. No matter where your allegiances lie, this should be another great chapter in an already historic (and heated) rivalry. I'll be bringing you the keys to the game for both teams, followed by my prediction for this Saturday's action. Enjoy! THE GAME: MINNESOTA VIKINGS (#6 SEED, 10-6) @ GREEN BAY PACKERS (#3 SEED, 11-5) THE TIME: 7:00 P.M. CENTRAL TIME, SATURDAY (1/5) THE LINE: PACKERS (-8), OVER/UNDER IS 46 POINTS ![]() All Day, every day. KEYS FOR THE MINNESOTA VIKINGS 1. FEED THE BEAST Assuming you haven't been living under a rock the past few weeks, you're probably aware of Adrian Peterson and his tremendous 2012 season. Minnesota's offensive success is centered around the man they call "All Day" - and for good reason. Only one year after tearing his ACL and MCL, Peterson is arguably the MVP of the entire league. In 16 games, he posted 2,097 yards rushing - only nine yards short of the all-time record set by the great Eric Dickerson in 1984. AP has been a man on a mission this season, and luckily for Vikings fans, we have at least one more opportunity to watch his otherworldly talents in 2013. In two games versus the Packers this year, AP has averaged a staggering 204.5 yards/game - by far his best average against any opponent. Furthermore, in 12 career games against Green Bay, AP has exceeded 175 yards rushing in four of those contests. Behind a strong offensive line and a Pro-Bowl FB in Jerome Felton, the Vikings will look to do what they do best - pound the ball with Peterson. Running the ball also gives Minnesota the added benefit of keeping Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay offense on the sidelines and off the field. The Packers defense knows that stopping AP is their number one responsibility and the onus of that falls on the unit as a whole. Whoever wins this battle is very likely to win the game. In my mind, Adrian Peterson is the toughest player in the NFL to take down in the open field. If he gets room to run on Saturday, it's going to be a disastrous day for the Packers and their fans. 2. LIMIT THE MISTAKES Ok, that heading may seem entirely too obvious, but allow me to explain. With second year pro Christian Ponder playing in his first ever NFL postseason game, the pressure will be on the young QB to perform. However, due to their offensive scheme, "performance" takes on a whole new meaning with the Vikings. Efficiency in Minnesota's west coast offense is paramount to almost anything else, especially with the league's best running attack. Seldom will you see Ponder and the Vikings take deep shots down the field to their receivers. What you are more likely to see are short to intermediate passing attempts that keep the down and distance manageable for AP and the rushing attack. Here's a crazy stat for you : Minnesota is 7-1 this season when Christian Ponder doesn't throw an interception. That really should tell it all. When Ponder plays adequately (in his case, making the right decisions) the Vikings are a vastly different team. He has done just that in December - turning in good, if unspectacular, performances during the team's 4-0 stretch. Ponder's speed is a bit surprising and he will need to make a few plays on the run if Minnesota is to be successful. Mistakes also include penalties for the Vikings - there is simply less margin for error when playing on the road in a hostile environment. Winning the turnover battle and minimizing penalties is a sure fire way for the Vikings to take down the Pack this weekend. 3. PRESSURE ON RODGERS In full disclosure, I have a tremendous amount of respect for Aaron Rodgers. That said, few things make me happier than seeing him sacked and hit in the pocket. Minnesota's defense ranks 5th in the NFL with 44 sacks on the season. In their meeting last week, Jared Allen and Co. combined for five sacks on Rodgers and a handful of other pressures. Rodgers simply won't turn the ball over unless you force him to make a bad decision - usually by way of tremendous pressure up front. The Vikings like to rush four lineman and play conservatively with their cover-2 defense. In other words, I wouldn't expect to see a ton of blitzes being called. As we've seen in the past, this is sometimes effective, but not always reliable. With top CB Antoine Winfield nursing a hand injury, you can bet that Aaron Rodgers will be looking to throw the ball a substantial amount on Saturday night. The Packers are a tempo-based offense and love to run the no-huddle to keep opposing defense's on their heels. Disrupting the rhythm of Rodgers and Green Bay's passing attack is absolutely key in this game for Minnesota. I'm not foolish enough to think that the Vikings can fully stop Aaron Rodgers, but if they can slow him and frustrate him enough, they will be playing this game on a much more even playing field. ![]() This guy again?! KEYS FOR THE GREEN BAY PACKERS 1. THROW EARLY.. AND OFTEN As good as Adrian Peterson is for the Vikings, Aaron Rodgers may mean more to the Packers chances at victory this weekend. When he is on his game, there are few better than Rodgers at the quarterback position. Number 12 is the number one thorn in Minnesota's side - he has consistently performed well against the Vikings throughout the years. In his last five games against Minnesota, Rodgers has completed nearly 75% of his passes (with a 16:1 TD/INT ratio) on his way to a 132.5 passer rating. Mike McCarthy and the Green Bay coaching staff are wise to the fact that Minnesota struggles against multiple receiver sets. What's more troubling for Minnesota is that the Packers have the personnel to be deadly in such packages. Surrounding Rodgers is the best receiving core (top to bottom) in the NFL. Jordy Nelson, Greg Jennings, James Jones, and Randall Cobb are a fearsome foursome at wideout and present plenty of mismatches for opposing defenses. Going against the 24th ranked pass D that gives up an average of 244 yards/contest, Aaron Rodgers will look to be his usual laser-sharp self. The running game, with DuJuan Harris and Ryan Grant, does not present nearly the same threat as does the pass. Green Bay is most deadly when they have the option to go with either the run or the pass, especially in short down scenarios. If Rodgers can avoid being stuck in third and long and other obvious passing situations, the Packers will have the Vikings defense exactly where they want them. 2. STOP THAT MAN! I'm just not going to dedicate a lot to this paragraph because it seems so blatantly obvious. If B.J. Raji, Clay Matthews, and Charles Woodson can hold AP to under 100 yards, this game likely will be a blowout for Green Bay. Granted, every defense in the league has had fits trying to stop Peterson this year, but the Packers need to be creative in their approach. Whether that's loading the box with defenders or bringing heavy blitz packages, Green Bay needs to make things much more frustrating for AP. Though it's a lot easier said than done, Packers defenders will need to tackle exceptionally well in order to stop Adrian Peterson from wreaking havoc. 3. PROTECT THE HOME FIELD Green Bay's Lambeau Field was once one of the greatest home field advantages in the NFL, especially in the cold. Yes, you read that correctly, I wrote "once." Through 2001, the Packers were 13-0 in home playoff contests. Since then? They have lost 4 of their last 6 in front of the home crowd, including a surprisingly lopsided defeat to the Giants in last year's postseason. Minnesota does not play all that well away from the Metrodome, where they won seven of their ten games this year. Coming from a climate-controlled, dome environment, the cold weather might be a big disadvantage for the Vikings. Saturday night's forecast in Green Bay currently seems a bit balmy with a high of 28 and a low of around 20 degrees. I fully expect the Packers to come out firing in an effort to get the crowd noise to a deafening level. Though Lambeau may not represent the home field advantage it had been prior to 2001, it surely is one of the more intimidating venues to play in - numbers be damned. THE VERDICT: My heart is telling me to go with the Vikings, but my head says to go with the (dreaded) Packers in this one. Although Minnesota is fully capable of beating Green Bay, they aren't likely to play the perfectly-executed game needed in order to win on the road. AP will go for around 150 yards and a TD but it will all be for not if Christian Ponder and the Vikings defense don't rise to the occasion. Give credit to Aaron Rodgers - who is clearly a top 3 QB in today's NFL and continues to impress by not turning the ball over. This game will come down to turnovers, Adrian Peterson, and the matchup at Quarterback. Unfortunately, I expect Green Bay to do just enough to come out on top.
PREDICTED SCORE: GREEN BAY 27 MINNESOTA 21
1 Comment
|
AuthorHey, I'm Ted Sorensen and this is my sports & personal blog. Leave some comments and let me know what you think! Archives
June 2016
|